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BGR Bulgaria First League · Kamp ·

Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–12.73 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier46%
Uavgjort28%
Borteseier26%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 46% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier46% selection probability
Projected score2–1Spartak VarnaSeptemvri Sofia
Expected goals2.73Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over51% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.8Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
46% / 28% / 26%KampresultatHjemmeseier46%2.17
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Septemvri Sofia win (26.4%)Dobbel sjanse1X73.6%1.36
Over 51% · Under 49%Goals 2.5Over51%1.96
Ja 53% · Nei 47%Begge lag scorerJa53%1.89
2.73 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
8.8 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRettferdig odds
Spartak Varna win46%2.17
Uavgjort28%3.57
Septemvri Sofia win26%3.85

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Spartak Varna1.68

Hjemme share of expected goals 61.5%

Total expected goals2.73Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 51% · Under 49%

Septemvri Sofia1.05

Borte share of expected goals 38.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 53% · Nei 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Spartak Varna

2.00pts / match
Spilt5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Poeng10

SignalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Septemvri Sofia

0.40pts / match
Spilt5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Poeng2

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
46%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
26%
10
Points from supplied form
2
1.68
Expected goals
1.05
Spartak VarnaSeptemvri Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Spartak Varna signalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Septemvri Sofia signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk54% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–1 · 46% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Spartak Varna vunnet 46%,Uavgjort 28%,Septemvri Sofia vunnet 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.73 · Over 2.5 51% · Current selection Over