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BGR Βουλγαρία - Πρώτη Λίγκα · Αγώνας ·

Σπαρτάκ Βάρνα vs Σεπτέμβρη Σοφία

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Γηπεδούχος form
Projected score2–12.73 expected goals
Φιλοξενούμενος form
Νίκη γηπεδούχου46%
Ισοπαλία28%
Νίκη φιλοξενούμενου26%
Full model forecastΝίκη γηπεδούχουTier A · 46% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callΝίκη γηπεδούχου46% selection probability
Projected score2–1Σπαρτάκ ΒάρναΣεπτέμβρη Σοφία
Expected goals2.73Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Άνω51% for the selected side
Σκοράρουν και οι δύοΝαι53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.8Κάτω 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketΕπιλογήΠιθανότηταΔίκαιη απόδοση
46% / 28% / 26%Αποτέλεσμα αγώναΝίκη γηπεδούχου46%2.17
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Σεπτέμβρη Σοφία win (26.4%)Διπλή Ευκαιρία1X73.6%1.36
Άνω 51% · Κάτω 49%Goals 2.5Άνω51%1.96
Ναι 53% · Όχι 47%Σκοράρουν και οι δύοΝαι53%1.89
2.73 total expected goalsΑκριβές σκορ2–1
8.8 expected match cornersΚόρνερΚάτω 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Όχι snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityΔίκαιη απόδοση
Σπαρτάκ Βάρνα win46%2.17
Ισοπαλία28%3.57
Σεπτέμβρη Σοφία win26%3.85

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Σπαρτάκ Βάρνα1.68

Γηπεδούχος share of expected goals 61.5%

Total expected goals2.73Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Άνω 51% · Κάτω 49%

Σεπτέμβρη Σοφία1.05

Φιλοξενούμενος share of expected goals 38.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitΝαι 53% · Όχι 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Γηπεδούχος-context · form sequence

Σπαρτάκ Βάρνα

2.00pts / match
Αγώνες5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Πόντοι10

SignalΓηπεδούχος unbeaten 4/5

Φιλοξενούμενος-context · form sequence

Σεπτέμβρη Σοφία

0.40pts / match
Αγώνες5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Πόντοι2

SignalΓηπεδούχος matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
46%
Νίκη probability excluding draw
26%
10
Points from supplied form
2
1.68
Expected goals
1.05
Σπαρτάκ ΒάρναΣεπτέμβρη Σοφία
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Σπαρτάκ Βάρνα signalΓηπεδούχος unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Σεπτέμβρη Σοφία signalΓηπεδούχος matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk54% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ισοπαλία probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Σπαρτάκ Βάρνα vs Σεπτέμβρη Σοφία FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Νίκη γηπεδούχου · Projected score 2–1 · 46% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Σπαρτάκ Βάρνα νίκη 46%,Ισοπαλία 28%,Σεπτέμβρη Σοφία νίκη 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.73 · Άνω 2.5 51% · Current selection Άνω