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BGR Bulgaria First League · Trận đấu ·

Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Chủ nhà form
Projected score2–12.73 expected goals
Khách form
Chủ nhà thắng46%
Hòa28%
Đội khách thắng26%
Full model forecastChủ nhà thắngTier A · 46% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callChủ nhà thắng46% selection probability
Projected score2–1Spartak VarnaSeptemvri Sofia
Expected goals2.73Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Tài51% for the selected side
Cả hai đội ghi bàn53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.8Xỉu 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketLựa chọnXác suấtTỷ lệ công bằng
46% / 28% / 26%Kết quả trận đấuChủ nhà thắng46%2.17
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Septemvri Sofia win (26.4%)Cơ hội kép1X73.6%1.36
Tài 51% · Xỉu 49%Goals 2.5Tài51%1.96
Có 53% · Không 47%Cả hai đội ghi bàn53%1.89
2.73 total expected goalsTỷ số chính xác2–1
8.8 expected match cornersPhạt gócXỉu 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Không snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityTỷ lệ công bằng
Spartak Varna win46%2.17
Hòa28%3.57
Septemvri Sofia win26%3.85

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Spartak Varna1.68

Chủ nhà share of expected goals 61.5%

Total expected goals2.73Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Tài 51% · Xỉu 49%

Septemvri Sofia1.05

Khách share of expected goals 38.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 53% · Không 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Chủ nhà-context · form sequence

Spartak Varna

2.00pts / match
Số trận5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Điểm10

SignalChủ nhà unbeaten 4/5

Khách-context · form sequence

Septemvri Sofia

0.40pts / match
Số trận5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Điểm2

SignalChủ nhà matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
46%
Thắng probability excluding draw
26%
10
Points from supplied form
2
1.68
Expected goals
1.05
Spartak VarnaSeptemvri Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Spartak Varna signalChủ nhà unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Septemvri Sofia signalChủ nhà matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk54% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Hòa probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Chủ nhà thắng · Projected score 2–1 · 46% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Spartak Varna thắng 46%,Hòa 28%,Septemvri Sofia thắng 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.73 · Tài 2.5 51% · Current selection Tài