Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
46% / 28% / 26%Match resultHome win46%2.17
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Septemvri Sofia win (26.2%)Double chance1X73.8%1.36
Over 52% · Under 48%Goals 2.5Over52%1.92
Yes 53% · No 47%Both teams scoreYes53%1.89
2.74 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1——
8.8 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5——
Probability view
Forecast probabilities and fair odds
No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.
OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Spartak Varna win46%2.17
Draw28%3.57
Septemvri Sofia win26%3.85
Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 61.7%
Total expected goals2.74Balanced
Dedicated goals model: Over 52% · Under 48%
Away share of expected goals 38.3%
Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 53% · No 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
2.00pts / matchSpartak Varna
LWWDW
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10
SignalHome unbeaten 4/5
Away-context · form sequence
0.40pts / matchSeptemvri Sofia
LLLDD
Played5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Points2
SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
46%
Win probability excluding draw
26%10
Points from supplied form
21.69
Expected goals
1.05Spartak VarnaSeptemvri Sofia
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 28%.
Match questions
Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 46% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Spartak Varna win 46%，Draw 28%，Septemvri Sofia win 26%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 2.74 · Over 2.5 52% · Current selection Over。