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BGR Bulgaria First League · Fixture ·

CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–11.97 expected goals
Away form
Home win67%
Draw22%
Away win10%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 67% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win67% selection probability
Projected score1–1CSKA SofiaBotev Vratsa
Expected goals1.97Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under69% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo67% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
67% / 22% / 10%Match resultHome win67%1.49
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Botev Vratsa win (10.2%)Double chance1X89.8%1.11
Over 31% · Under 69%Goals 2.5Under69%1.45
Yes 33% · No 67%Both teams scoreNo67%1.49
1.97 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
9.2 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.1%Largest probability gapCSKA Sofia winDifference-1.3 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
CSKA Sofia win67%1.491.3868.3%-1.3 pp
Draw22%4.554.3321.8%+0.2 pp
Botev Vratsa win10%10.009.509.9%+0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

CSKA Sofia1.40

Home share of expected goals 71.1%

Total expected goals1.97Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 31% · Under 69%

Botev Vratsa0.57

Away share of expected goals 28.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 33% · No 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

CSKA Sofia

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalHome unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Botev Vratsa

0.80pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
67%
Win probability excluding draw
10%
10
Points from supplied form
4
1.40
Expected goals
0.57
CSKA SofiaBotev Vratsa
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01CSKA Sofia signalHome unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Botev Vratsa signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk33% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 22%.

Match questions

CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 67% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

CSKA Sofia win 67%,Draw 22%,Botev Vratsa win 10%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.97 · Over 2.5 31% · Current selection Under