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BGR Bulgaria First League · Kamp ·

Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–12.54 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier44%
Uavgjort29%
Borteseier27%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier44% selection probability
Projected score2–1Arda KardzhaliLokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Expected goals2.54Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under53% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa50% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
44% / 29% / 27%KampresultatHjemmeseier44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia win (26.7%)Dobbel sjanse1X73.3%1.36
Over 47% · Under 53%Goals 2.5Under53%1.89
Ja 50% · Nei 50%Begge lag scorerJa50%2.00
2.54 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
8.9 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRettferdig odds
Arda Kardzhali win44%2.27
Uavgjort29%3.45
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia win27%3.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Arda Kardzhali1.55

Hjemme share of expected goals 61%

Total expected goals2.54Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 47% · Under 53%

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia0.99

Borte share of expected goals 39%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 50% · Nei 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Arda Kardzhali

2.00pts / match
Spilt5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Poeng10

SignalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

0.40pts / match
Spilt5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Poeng2

SignalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
27%
10
Points from supplied form
2
1.55
Expected goals
0.99
Arda KardzhaliLokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Arda Kardzhali signalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia signalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Arda Kardzhali vunnet 44%,Uavgjort 29%,Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vunnet 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.54 · Over 2.5 47% · Current selection Under