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BGR Bulgaria - Parva liga · Partita ·

Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–12.54 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa44%
Pareggio29%
Vittoria ospite27%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa44% selection probability
Projected score2–1Arda KardzhaliLokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Expected goals2.54Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto53% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnano50% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
44% / 29% / 27%Esito partitaVittoria casa44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia win (26.7%)Doppia Chance1X73.3%1.36
Sopra 47% · Sotto 53%Goals 2.5Sotto53%1.89
Sì 50% · No 50%Entrambe le squadre segnano50%2.00
2.54 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–1
8.9 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
Arda Kardzhali win44%2.27
Pareggio29%3.45
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia win27%3.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Arda Kardzhali1.55

Casa share of expected goals 61%

Total expected goals2.54Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 47% · Sotto 53%

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia0.99

Trasferta share of expected goals 39%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 50% · No 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Arda Kardzhali

2.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punti10

SignalCasa unbeaten 4/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

0.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Punti2

SignalCasa clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Vinta probability excluding draw
27%
10
Points from supplied form
2
1.55
Expected goals
0.99
Arda KardzhaliLokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Arda Kardzhali signalCasa unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia signalCasa clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 2–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Arda Kardzhali vinta 44%,Pareggio 29%,Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vinta 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.54 · Sopra 2.5 47% · Current selection Sotto