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BGR Болгария - Первая лига · Матч ·

Арда Кырджали vs Локомотив 1929 София

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Хозяева form
Projected score2–12.54 expected goals
Гости form
Победа хозяев44%
Ничья29%
Победа гостей27%
Full model forecastПобеда хозяевTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда хозяев44% selection probability
Projected score2–1Арда КырджалиЛокомотив 1929 София
Expected goals2.54Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Меньше53% for the selected side
Обе забьютДа50% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Меньше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
44% / 29% / 27%Исход матчаПобеда хозяев44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Локомотив 1929 София win (26.7%)Двойной шанс1X73.3%1.36
Больше 47% · Меньше 53%Goals 2.5Меньше53%1.89
Да 50% · Нет 50%Обе забьютДа50%2.00
2.54 total expected goalsТочный счёт2–1
8.9 expected match cornersУгловыеМеньше 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Нет snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityСправедливый коэффициент
Арда Кырджали win44%2.27
Ничья29%3.45
Локомотив 1929 София win27%3.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Арда Кырджали1.55

Хозяева share of expected goals 61%

Total expected goals2.54Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Больше 47% · Меньше 53%

Локомотив 1929 София0.99

Гости share of expected goals 39%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitДа 50% · Нет 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

Арда Кырджали

2.00pts / match
Сыграно5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Баллы10

SignalХозяева unbeaten 4/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Локомотив 1929 София

0.40pts / match
Сыграно5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Баллы2

SignalХозяева clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
27%
10
Points from supplied form
2
1.55
Expected goals
0.99
Арда КырджалиЛокомотив 1929 София
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Арда Кырджали signalХозяева unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Локомотив 1929 София signalХозяева clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Арда Кырджали vs Локомотив 1929 София FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа хозяев · Projected score 2–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Арда Кырджали выигрыш 44%,Ничья 29%,Локомотив 1929 София выигрыш 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.54 · ТБ 2.5 47% · Current selection Меньше