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SCO Schotland - League Two · Round 1 ·

Elgin vs Forfar

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score1–12.72 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst48%
Gelijkspel26%
Uitwinst26%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 48% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst48% selection probability
Projected score1–1ElginForfar
Expected goals2.72Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Boven51% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenJa56% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
48% / 26% / 26%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst48%2.08
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Forfar win (25.7%)Dubbele Kans1X74.3%1.35
Boven 51% · Onder 49%Goals 2.5Boven51%1.96
Ja 56% · Nee 44%Beide teams scorenJa56%1.79
2.72 total expected goalsExacte score1–1
9.7 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.8%Largest probability gapForfar winDifference+1.2 pp
OutcomeVoorspellingEerlijke oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Elgin win48%2.081.8348.9%-0.9 pp
Gelijkspel26%3.853.4026.3%-0.3 pp
Forfar win26%3.853.6024.8%+1.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Elgin1.36

Thuis share of expected goals 50%

Total expected goals2.72Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Boven 51% · Onder 49%

Forfar1.36

Uit share of expected goals 50%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 56% · Nee 44%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Elgin

1.00pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punten5

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Forfar

2.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Punten13

SignalThuis failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
48%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
26%
5
Points from supplied form
13
1.36
Expected goals
1.36
ElginForfar
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Elgin signalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Forfar signalThuis failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk52% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Elgin vs Forfar FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 1–1 · 48% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Elgin gewonnen 48%,Gelijkspel 26%,Forfar gewonnen 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.72 · Boven 2.5 51% · Current selection Boven