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ITA Italië - Serie B · Wedstrijd ·

Mantova vs Empoli

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–12.64 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst42%
Gelijkspel29%
Uitwinst30%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 42% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst42% selection probability
Projected score2–1MantovaEmpoli
Expected goals2.64Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Onder51% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenJa53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
42% / 29% / 30%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.7%)Dubbele Kans1271.3%1.40
Boven 49% · Onder 51%Goals 2.5Onder51%1.96
Ja 53% · Nee 47%Beide teams scorenJa53%1.89
2.64 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
9.5 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Mantova win42%2.38
Gelijkspel29%3.45
Empoli win30%3.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Mantova1.52

Thuis share of expected goals 57.6%

Total expected goals2.64Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Boven 49% · Onder 51%

Empoli1.12

Uit share of expected goals 42.4%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 53% · Nee 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Mantova

1.80pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Punten9

SignalThuis won 3/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Empoli

1.80pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Punten9

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
42%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
30%
9
Points from supplied form
9
1.52
Expected goals
1.12
MantovaEmpoli
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Mantova signalThuis won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Empoli signalThuis matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Mantova vs Empoli FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Mantova gewonnen 42%,Gelijkspel 29%,Empoli gewonnen 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.64 · Boven 2.5 49% · Current selection Onder