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ITA Italia - Serie B · Partita ·

Mantova vs Empoli

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–12.64 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa42%
Pareggio29%
Vittoria ospite30%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 42% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa42% selection probability
Projected score2–1MantovaEmpoli
Expected goals2.64Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto51% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnano53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
42% / 29% / 30%Esito partitaVittoria casa42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.7%)Doppia Chance1271.3%1.40
Sopra 49% · Sotto 51%Goals 2.5Sotto51%1.96
Sì 53% · No 47%Entrambe le squadre segnano53%1.89
2.64 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–1
9.5 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
Mantova win42%2.38
Pareggio29%3.45
Empoli win30%3.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Mantova1.52

Casa share of expected goals 57.6%

Total expected goals2.64Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 49% · Sotto 51%

Empoli1.12

Trasferta share of expected goals 42.4%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 53% · No 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Mantova

1.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Punti9

SignalCasa won 3/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Empoli

1.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Punti9

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
42%
Vinta probability excluding draw
30%
9
Points from supplied form
9
1.52
Expected goals
1.12
MantovaEmpoli
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Mantova signalCasa won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Empoli signalCasa matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Mantova vs Empoli FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 2–1 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Mantova vinta 42%,Pareggio 29%,Empoli vinta 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.64 · Sopra 2.5 49% · Current selection Sotto