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BEL België - Eerste klasse A · Round 1 ·

Gent vs KV Mechelen

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–12.63 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst42%
Gelijkspel29%
Uitwinst29%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 42% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst42% selection probability
Projected score2–1GentKV Mechelen
Expected goals2.63Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Onder51% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenJa53% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Boven 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
42% / 29% / 29%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.7%)Dubbele Kans1271.3%1.40
Boven 49% · Onder 51%Goals 2.5Onder51%1.96
Ja 53% · Nee 47%Beide teams scorenJa53%1.89
2.63 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
10.0 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Gent win42%2.38
Gelijkspel29%3.45
KV Mechelen win29%3.45

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Gent1.53

Thuis share of expected goals 58.2%

Total expected goals2.63Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Boven 49% · Onder 51%

KV Mechelen1.10

Uit share of expected goals 41.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 53% · Nee 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Gent

1.20pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Punten6

SignalThuis unbeaten 4/5

Uit-context · form sequence

KV Mechelen

1.00pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punten5

SignalThuis clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
42%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
29%
6
Points from supplied form
5
1.53
Expected goals
1.10
GentKV Mechelen
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Gent signalThuis unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02KV Mechelen signalThuis clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Gent vs KV Mechelen FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Gent gewonnen 42%,Gelijkspel 29%,KV Mechelen gewonnen 29%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.63 · Boven 2.5 49% · Current selection Onder