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BEL Belgium First Division A · Round 1 ·

Gent vs KV Mechelen

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–12.62 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier42%
Uavgjort29%
Borteseier29%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 42% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier42% selection probability
Projected score2–1GentKV Mechelen
Expected goals2.62Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under51% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa53% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
42% / 29% / 29%KampresultatHjemmeseier42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.6%)Dobbel sjanse1271.4%1.40
Over 49% · Under 51%Goals 2.5Under51%1.96
Ja 53% · Nei 47%Begge lag scorerJa53%1.89
2.62 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.0 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRettferdig odds
Gent win42%2.38
Uavgjort29%3.45
KV Mechelen win29%3.45

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Gent1.52

Hjemme share of expected goals 58%

Total expected goals2.62Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 49% · Under 51%

KV Mechelen1.10

Borte share of expected goals 42%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 53% · Nei 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Gent

1.20pts / match
Spilt5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Poeng6

SignalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

Borte-context · form sequence

KV Mechelen

1.00pts / match
Spilt5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Poeng5

SignalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
42%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
29%
6
Points from supplied form
5
1.52
Expected goals
1.10
GentKV Mechelen
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Gent signalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02KV Mechelen signalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Gent vs KV Mechelen FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–1 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Gent vunnet 42%,Uavgjort 29%,KV Mechelen vunnet 29%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.62 · Over 2.5 49% · Current selection Under