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DEU Germany Bundesliga II · Round 1 ·

Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–12.93 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier41%
Uavgjort28%
Borteseier31%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier41% selection probability
Projected score2–1NürnbergDynamo Dresden
Expected goals2.93Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over56% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa59% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
41% / 28% / 31%KampresultatHjemmeseier41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.6%)Dobbel sjanse1272.4%1.38
Over 56% · Under 44%Goals 2.5Over56%1.79
Ja 59% · Nei 41%Begge lag scorerJa59%1.69
2.93 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.0 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRettferdig odds
Nürnberg win41%2.44
Uavgjort28%3.57
Dynamo Dresden win31%3.23

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Nürnberg1.64

Hjemme share of expected goals 56%

Total expected goals2.93Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 56% · Under 44%

Dynamo Dresden1.29

Borte share of expected goals 44%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 59% · Nei 41%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Nürnberg

2.20pts / match
Spilt5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Poeng11

SignalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Dynamo Dresden

2.40pts / match
Spilt5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Poeng12

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
41%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
31%
11
Points from supplied form
12
1.64
Expected goals
1.29
NürnbergDynamo Dresden
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Nürnberg signalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Dynamo Dresden signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–1 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Nürnberg vunnet 41%,Uavgjort 28%,Dynamo Dresden vunnet 31%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.93 · Over 2.5 56% · Current selection Over