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DEU Deutschland - 2. Bundesliga · Round 1 ·

1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–12.92 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg41%
Unentschieden28%
Auswärtssieg31%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg41% selection probability
Projected score2–11. FC NürnbergDynamo Dresden
Expected goals2.92Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Über56% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa59% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
41% / 28% / 31%SpielergebnisHeimsieg41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.6%)Doppelte Chance1272.4%1.38
Über 56% · Unter 44%Goals 2.5Über56%1.79
Ja 59% · Nein 41%Beide Teams treffenJa59%1.69
2.92 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
10.0 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nein snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFaire Quote
1. FC Nürnberg win41%2.44
Unentschieden28%3.57
Dynamo Dresden win31%3.23

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

1. FC Nürnberg1.64

Heim share of expected goals 56.2%

Total expected goals2.92Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 56% · Unter 44%

Dynamo Dresden1.28

Auswärts share of expected goals 43.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 59% · Nein 41%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

1. FC Nürnberg

2.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Punkte11

SignalHeim unbeaten 5/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Dynamo Dresden

2.40pts / match
Gespielt5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Punkte12

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
41%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
31%
11
Points from supplied form
12
1.64
Expected goals
1.28
1. FC NürnbergDynamo Dresden
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

011. FC Nürnberg signalHeim unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Dynamo Dresden signalHeim matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

1. FC Nürnberg vs Dynamo Dresden FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

1. FC Nürnberg Gewinn 41%,Unentschieden 28%,Dynamo Dresden Gewinn 31%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.92 · Über 2.5 56% · Current selection Über