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Neftchi Fargona vs Qizilqum Zarafshon

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–02.43 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier75%
Uavgjort17%
Borteseier8%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 75% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier75% selection probability
Projected score2–0Neftchi FargonaQizilqum Zarafshon
Expected goals2.43Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under56% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerNei79% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
75% / 17% / 8%KampresultatHjemmeseier75%1.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Qizilqum Zarafshon win (7.6%)Dobbel sjanse1X92.4%1.08
Over 44% · Under 56%Goals 2.5Under56%1.79
Ja 21% · Nei 79%Begge lag scorerNei79%1.27
2.43 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–0
8.7 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.5%Largest probability gapNeftchi Fargona winDifference+0.2 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Neftchi Fargona win75%1.331.2074.8%+0.2 pp
Uavgjort17%5.885.2517.1%-0.1 pp
Qizilqum Zarafshon win8%12.5011.008.2%-0.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Neftchi Fargona2.16

Hjemme share of expected goals 88.9%

Total expected goals2.43Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 44% · Under 56%

Qizilqum Zarafshon0.27

Borte share of expected goals 11.1%

Projected score2–0BTTS splitJa 21% · Nei 79%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Neftchi Fargona

1.80pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Poeng9

SignalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Qizilqum Zarafshon

0.40pts / match
Spilt5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Poeng2

SignalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
75%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
8%
9
Points from supplied form
2
2.16
Expected goals
0.27
Neftchi FargonaQizilqum Zarafshon
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Neftchi Fargona signalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Qizilqum Zarafshon signalHjemme clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk25% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 17%.

Match questions

Neftchi Fargona vs Qizilqum Zarafshon FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–0 · 75% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Neftchi Fargona vunnet 75%,Uavgjort 17%,Qizilqum Zarafshon vunnet 8%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.43 · Over 2.5 44% · Current selection Under