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UZB Ouzbékistan - PFL · Match ·

Neftchi Fargona vs Qizilqum Zarafshon

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score2–02.43 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile75%
Nul17%
Victoire à l’extérieur8%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 75% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile75% selection probability
Projected score2–0Neftchi FargonaQizilqum Zarafshon
Expected goals2.43Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de56% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentNon79% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
75% / 17% / 8%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile75%1.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Qizilqum Zarafshon win (7.6%)Double chance1X92.4%1.08
Plus de 44% · Moins de 56%Goals 2.5Moins de56%1.79
Oui 21% · Non 79%Les deux équipes marquentNon79%1.27
2.43 total expected goalsScore exact2–0
8.7 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.5%Largest probability gapNeftchi Fargona winDifference+0.2 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Neftchi Fargona win75%1.331.2074.8%+0.2 pp
Nul17%5.885.2517.1%-0.1 pp
Qizilqum Zarafshon win8%12.5011.008.2%-0.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Neftchi Fargona2.16

Domicile share of expected goals 88.9%

Total expected goals2.43Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 44% · Moins de 56%

Qizilqum Zarafshon0.27

Extérieur share of expected goals 11.1%

Projected score2–0BTTS splitOui 21% · Non 79%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Neftchi Fargona

1.80pts / match
Joués5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Points9

SignalDomicile unbeaten 5/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Qizilqum Zarafshon

0.40pts / match
Joués5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Points2

SignalDomicile clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
75%
Gagné probability excluding draw
8%
9
Points from supplied form
2
2.16
Expected goals
0.27
Neftchi FargonaQizilqum Zarafshon
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Neftchi Fargona signalDomicile unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Qizilqum Zarafshon signalDomicile clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk25% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 17%.

Match questions

Neftchi Fargona vs Qizilqum Zarafshon FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 2–0 · 75% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Neftchi Fargona victoire 75%,Nul 17%,Qizilqum Zarafshon victoire 8%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.43 · Plus de 2.5 44% · Current selection Moins de