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HND Honduras Liga Nacional · Round 3 ·

CD Choloma vs CD Marathon

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–22.37 expected goals
Away form
Home win21%
Draw26%
Away win54%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 54% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win54% selection probability
Projected score1–2CD CholomaCD Marathon
Expected goals2.37Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under58% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo59% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
21% / 26% / 54%Match resultAway win54%1.85
Derived from 1X2 · excludes CD Choloma win (20.8%)Double chanceX279.2%1.26
Over 42% · Under 58%Goals 2.5Under58%1.72
Yes 41% · No 59%Both teams scoreNo59%1.69
2.37 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
10.3 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.2%Largest probability gapCD Marathon winDifference+1.1 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
CD Choloma win21%4.764.2021.4%-0.4 pp
Draw26%3.853.5025.7%+0.3 pp
CD Marathon win54%1.851.7052.9%+1.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

CD Choloma0.70

Home share of expected goals 29.5%

Total expected goals2.37Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 42% · Under 58%

CD Marathon1.67

Away share of expected goals 70.5%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 41% · No 59%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

CD Choloma

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

CD Marathon

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn4Losses0Points7

SignalAway unbeaten 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
21%
Win probability excluding draw
54%
6
Points from supplied form
7
0.70
Expected goals
1.67
CD CholomaCD Marathon
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01CD Choloma signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02CD Marathon signalAway unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk46% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

CD Choloma vs CD Marathon FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 54% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

CD Choloma win 21%,Draw 26%,CD Marathon win 54%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.37 · Over 2.5 42% · Current selection Under