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HND Honduras - Lega Nazionale · Round 3 ·

CD Choloma vs CD Marathon

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–22.37 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa21%
Pareggio26%
Vittoria ospite54%
Full model forecastVittoria ospiteTier A · 54% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria ospite54% selection probability
Projected score1–2CD CholomaCD Marathon
Expected goals2.37Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto58% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo59% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Sopra 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
21% / 26% / 54%Esito partitaVittoria ospite54%1.85
Derived from 1X2 · excludes CD Choloma win (20.8%)Doppia ChanceX279.2%1.26
Sopra 42% · Sotto 58%Goals 2.5Sotto58%1.72
Sì 41% · No 59%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo59%1.69
2.37 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–2
10.3 expected match cornersCornerSopra 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.2%Largest probability gapCD Marathon winDifference+1.1 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
CD Choloma win21%4.764.2021.4%-0.4 pp
Pareggio26%3.853.5025.7%+0.3 pp
CD Marathon win54%1.851.7052.9%+1.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

CD Choloma0.70

Casa share of expected goals 29.5%

Total expected goals2.37Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 42% · Sotto 58%

CD Marathon1.67

Trasferta share of expected goals 70.5%

Projected score1–2BTTS split 41% · No 59%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

CD Choloma

1.20pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punti6

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

CD Marathon

1.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn4Losses0Punti7

SignalTrasferta unbeaten 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
21%
Vinta probability excluding draw
54%
6
Points from supplied form
7
0.70
Expected goals
1.67
CD CholomaCD Marathon
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01CD Choloma signalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02CD Marathon signalTrasferta unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk46% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

CD Choloma vs CD Marathon FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria ospite · Projected score 1–2 · 54% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

CD Choloma vinta 21%,Pareggio 26%,CD Marathon vinta 54%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.37 · Sopra 2.5 42% · Current selection Sotto