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UZB Uzbekistan PFL · Fixture ·

Nasaf Qarshi vs FK Kokand 1912

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–12.10 expected goals
Away form
Home win60%
Draw25%
Away win15%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 60% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win60% selection probability
Projected score2–1Nasaf QarshiFK Kokand 1912
Expected goals2.10Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under65% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo66% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
60% / 25% / 15%Match resultHome win60%1.67
Derived from 1X2 · excludes FK Kokand 1912 win (15.3%)Double chance1X84.7%1.18
Over 35% · Under 65%Goals 2.5Under65%1.54
Yes 34% · No 66%Both teams scoreNo66%1.52
2.10 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
9.5 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.8%Largest probability gapFK Kokand 1912 winDifference-0.6 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Nasaf Qarshi win60%1.671.5059.6%+0.4 pp
Draw25%4.003.6024.8%+0.2 pp
FK Kokand 1912 win15%6.675.7515.6%-0.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Nasaf Qarshi1.55

Home share of expected goals 73.8%

Total expected goals2.10Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 35% · Under 65%

FK Kokand 19120.55

Away share of expected goals 26.2%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 34% · No 66%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Nasaf Qarshi

2.20pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Points11

SignalHome unbeaten 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

FK Kokand 1912

0.60pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Points3

SignalHome clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
60%
Win probability excluding draw
15%
11
Points from supplied form
3
1.55
Expected goals
0.55
Nasaf QarshiFK Kokand 1912
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Nasaf Qarshi signalHome unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02FK Kokand 1912 signalHome clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk40% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Nasaf Qarshi vs FK Kokand 1912 FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 60% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Nasaf Qarshi win 60%,Draw 25%,FK Kokand 1912 win 15%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.10 · Over 2.5 35% · Current selection Under