Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
47% / 29% / 25%Match resultHome win47%2.13
Derived from 1X2 · excludes La Luz win (24.5%)Double chance1X75.5%1.32
Over 39% · Under 61%Goals 2.5Under61%1.64
Yes 44% · No 56%Both teams scoreNo56%1.79
2.24 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1——
9.9 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5——
Price comparison
Published forecast vs reference market
Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.
Displayed margin12.4%Largest probability gapAtletico Fenix Montevideo winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Atletico Fenix Montevideo win47%2.131.9146.6%+0.4 pp
Draw29%3.453.1028.7%+0.3 pp
La Luz win25%4.003.6024.7%+0.3 pp
Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 62.1%
Total expected goals2.24Low-scoring
Dedicated goals model: Over 39% · Under 61%
Away share of expected goals 37.9%
Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 44% · No 56%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
1.40pts / matchAtletico Fenix Montevideo
DWLWL
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7
SignalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5
Away-context · form sequence
1.40pts / matchLa Luz
LWWLD
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7
SignalHome clean sheets: 2/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
47%
Win probability excluding draw
25%7
Points from supplied form
71.39
Expected goals
0.85Atletico Fenix MontevideoLa Luz
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Model and market agree on HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 29%.
Match questions
Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs La Luz FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 47% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Atletico Fenix Montevideo win 47%，Draw 29%，La Luz win 25%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 2.24 · Over 2.5 39% · Current selection Under。