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URY Uruguay Segunda · Match ·

Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs La Luz

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–12.24 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger47%
Oavgjort29%
Bortaseger25%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 47% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger47% selection probability
Projected score1–1Atletico Fenix MontevideoLa Luz
Expected goals2.24Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under61% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej56% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
47% / 29% / 25%MatchresultatHemmaseger47%2.13
Derived from 1X2 · excludes La Luz win (24.5%)Dubbelchans1X75.5%1.32
Över 39% · Under 61%Goals 2.5Under61%1.64
Ja 44% · Nej 56%Båda lagen gör målNej56%1.79
2.24 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.9 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin12.4%Largest probability gapAtletico Fenix Montevideo winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Atletico Fenix Montevideo win47%2.131.9146.6%+0.4 pp
Oavgjort29%3.453.1028.7%+0.3 pp
La Luz win25%4.003.6024.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Atletico Fenix Montevideo1.39

Hemma share of expected goals 62.1%

Total expected goals2.24Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Över 39% · Under 61%

La Luz0.85

Borta share of expected goals 37.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 44% · Nej 56%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Atletico Fenix Montevideo

1.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poäng7

SignalHemma matches under 2.5: 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

La Luz

1.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poäng7

SignalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
47%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
25%
7
Points from supplied form
7
1.39
Expected goals
0.85
Atletico Fenix MontevideoLa Luz
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Atletico Fenix Montevideo signalHemma matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02La Luz signalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk53% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs La Luz FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 1–1 · 47% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Atletico Fenix Montevideo vunnen 47%,Oavgjort 29%,La Luz vunnen 25%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.24 · Över 2.5 39% · Current selection Under