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URY Uruguay Segunda · Meci ·

Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs La Luz

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score1–12.24 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde47%
Egal29%
Victorie oaspeți25%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 47% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde47% selection probability
Projected score1–1Atletico Fenix MontevideoLa Luz
Expected goals2.24Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sub61% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu56% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Peste 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
47% / 29% / 25%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde47%2.13
Derived from 1X2 · excludes La Luz win (24.5%)Șansă dublă1X75.5%1.32
Peste 39% · Sub 61%Goals 2.5Sub61%1.64
Da 44% · Nu 56%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu56%1.79
2.24 total expected goalsScor corect1–1
9.9 expected match cornersCornerePeste 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin12.4%Largest probability gapAtletico Fenix Montevideo winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePredicțieCotă corectăReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Atletico Fenix Montevideo win47%2.131.9146.6%+0.4 pp
Egal29%3.453.1028.7%+0.3 pp
La Luz win25%4.003.6024.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Atletico Fenix Montevideo1.39

Gazde share of expected goals 62.1%

Total expected goals2.24Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Peste 39% · Sub 61%

La Luz0.85

Oaspeți share of expected goals 37.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitDa 44% · Nu 56%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Atletico Fenix Montevideo

1.40pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Puncte7

SignalGazde matches under 2.5: 4/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

La Luz

1.40pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Puncte7

SignalGazde clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
47%
Câștig probability excluding draw
25%
7
Points from supplied form
7
1.39
Expected goals
0.85
Atletico Fenix MontevideoLa Luz
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Atletico Fenix Montevideo signalGazde matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02La Luz signalGazde clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk53% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs La Luz FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 1–1 · 47% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Atletico Fenix Montevideo câștig 47%,Egal 29%,La Luz câștig 25%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.24 · Peste 2.5 39% · Current selection Sub