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NIR Northern Ireland Premier · Round 1 ·

Dungannon Swifts vs Coleraine

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–23.46 expected goals
Away form
Home win17%
Draw20%
Away win63%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 63% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win63% selection probability
Projected score1–2Dungannon SwiftsColeraine
Expected goals3.46Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over67% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes57% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
17% / 20% / 63%Match resultAway win63%1.59
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Dungannon Swifts win (17.4%)Double chanceX282.6%1.21
Over 67% · Under 33%Goals 2.5Over67%1.49
Yes 57% · No 43%Both teams scoreYes57%1.75
3.46 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
10.0 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.7%Largest probability gapDungannon Swifts winDifference-0.9 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Dungannon Swifts win17%5.885.0017.9%-0.9 pp
Draw20%5.004.5019.9%+0.1 pp
Coleraine win63%1.591.4462.2%+0.8 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Dungannon Swifts0.97

Home share of expected goals 28%

Total expected goals3.46Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 67% · Under 33%

Coleraine2.49

Away share of expected goals 72%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 57% · No 43%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Dungannon Swifts

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Coleraine

3.00pts / match
Played5Wins5Drawn0Losses0Points15

SignalHome failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
17%
Win probability excluding draw
63%
6
Points from supplied form
15
0.97
Expected goals
2.49
Dungannon SwiftsColeraine
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Dungannon Swifts signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Coleraine signalHome failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk37% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

Dungannon Swifts vs Coleraine FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 63% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Dungannon Swifts win 17%,Draw 20%,Coleraine win 63%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.46 · Over 2.5 67% · Current selection Over