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NIR Northern Ireland Premier · Round 1 ·

Cliftonville vs Crusaders

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–13.68 expected goals
Away form
Home win61%
Draw21%
Away win18%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 61% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win61% selection probability
Projected score2–1CliftonvilleCrusaders
Expected goals3.68Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over71% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes66% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
61% / 21% / 18%Match resultHome win61%1.64
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Crusaders win (18.1%)Double chance1X81.9%1.22
Over 71% · Under 29%Goals 2.5Over71%1.41
Yes 66% · No 34%Both teams scoreYes66%1.52
3.68 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
10.3 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin10.7%Largest probability gapCliftonville winDifference-0.1 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Cliftonville win61%1.641.4861.1%-0.1 pp
Draw21%4.764.3320.9%+0.1 pp
Crusaders win18%5.565.0018.1%-0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Cliftonville2.41

Home share of expected goals 65.5%

Total expected goals3.68Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 71% · Under 29%

Crusaders1.27

Away share of expected goals 34.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 66% · No 34%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Cliftonville

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Crusaders

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalAway unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
61%
Win probability excluding draw
18%
6
Points from supplied form
10
2.41
Expected goals
1.27
CliftonvilleCrusaders
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Cliftonville signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Crusaders signalAway unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk39% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 21%.

Match questions

Cliftonville vs Crusaders FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 61% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Cliftonville win 61%,Draw 21%,Crusaders win 18%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.68 · Over 2.5 71% · Current selection Over