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DEU Germany 3. Liga · Round 1 ·

Saarbrucken vs Rot-Weiss Essen

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–23.24 expected goals
Away form
Home win34%
Draw27%
Away win39%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win39% selection probability
Projected score2–2SaarbruckenRot-Weiss Essen
Expected goals3.24Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over63% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes65% for the selected side
Expected corners11.9Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
34% / 27% / 39%Match resultAway win39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.7%)Double chance1273.3%1.36
Over 63% · Under 37%Goals 2.5Over63%1.59
Yes 65% · No 35%Both teams scoreYes65%1.54
3.24 total expected goalsCorrect score2–2
11.9 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Saarbrucken win34%2.94
Draw27%3.70
Rot-Weiss Essen win39%2.56

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Saarbrucken1.54

Home share of expected goals 47.5%

Total expected goals3.24Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 63% · Under 37%

Rot-Weiss Essen1.70

Away share of expected goals 52.5%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitYes 65% · No 35%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Saarbrucken

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Rot-Weiss Essen

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Points9

SignalAway won 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
34%
Win probability excluding draw
39%
7
Points from supplied form
9
1.54
Expected goals
1.70
SaarbruckenRot-Weiss Essen
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Saarbrucken signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Rot-Weiss Essen signalAway won 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Saarbrucken vs Rot-Weiss Essen FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 2–2 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Saarbrucken win 34%,Draw 27%,Rot-Weiss Essen win 39%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.24 · Over 2.5 63% · Current selection Over