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DEU Germany 3. Liga · Round 1 ·

FC Viktoria Köln vs Jahn Regensburg

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.47 expected goals
Away form
Home win39%
Draw30%
Away win31%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win39% selection probability
Projected score1–1FC Viktoria KölnJahn Regensburg
Expected goals2.47Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under55% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes50% for the selected side
Expected corners10.4Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
39% / 30% / 31%Match resultHome win39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.5%)Double chance1270.5%1.42
Over 45% · Under 55%Goals 2.5Under55%1.82
Yes 50% · No 50%Both teams scoreYes50%2.00
2.47 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
10.4 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
FC Viktoria Köln win39%2.56
Draw30%3.33
Jahn Regensburg win31%3.23

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FC Viktoria Köln1.36

Home share of expected goals 55.1%

Total expected goals2.47Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 45% · Under 55%

Jahn Regensburg1.11

Away share of expected goals 44.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 50% · No 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

FC Viktoria Köln

0.80pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Jahn Regensburg

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Points9

SignalHome failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
39%
Win probability excluding draw
31%
4
Points from supplied form
9
1.36
Expected goals
1.11
FC Viktoria KölnJahn Regensburg
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FC Viktoria Köln signalHome matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Jahn Regensburg signalHome failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

FC Viktoria Köln vs Jahn Regensburg FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FC Viktoria Köln win 39%,Draw 30%,Jahn Regensburg win 31%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.47 · Over 2.5 45% · Current selection Under