Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
44% / 26% / 31%Match resultHome win44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (25.7%)Double chance1274.3%1.35
Over 57% · Under 43%Goals 2.5Over57%1.75
Yes 58% · No 42%Both teams scoreYes58%1.72
2.95 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1——
9.7 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5——
Price comparison
Published forecast vs reference market
Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.
Displayed margin7.6%Largest probability gapNurnberg winDifference+0.8 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Nurnberg win44%2.272.1543.2%+0.8 pp
Draw26%3.853.6025.8%+0.2 pp
Arminia Bielefeld win31%3.233.0031%0.0 pp
Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 59.7%
Total expected goals2.95Balanced
Dedicated goals model: Over 57% · Under 43%
Away share of expected goals 40.3%
Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 58% · No 42%Match profileBalanced
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
2.60pts / matchNurnberg
WWWWD
Played5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Points13
SignalHome unbeaten 5/5
Away-context · form sequence
2.40pts / matchArminia Bielefeld
WLWWW
Played5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Points12
SignalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
44%
Win probability excluding draw
31%13
Points from supplied form
121.76
Expected goals
1.19NurnbergArminia Bielefeld
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Model and market agree on HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 26%.
Match questions
Nurnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 44% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Nurnberg win 44%，Draw 26%，Arminia Bielefeld win 31%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 2.95 · Over 2.5 57% · Current selection Over。