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BGR Bulgaria First League · Fixture ·

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–11.78 expected goals
Away form
Home win23%
Draw30%
Away win47%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 47% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win47% selection probability
Projected score1–1Lokomotiv PlovdivArda Kardzhali
Expected goals1.78Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under73% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo65% for the selected side
Expected corners8.5Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
23% / 30% / 47%Match resultAway win47%2.13
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Lokomotiv Plovdiv win (22.8%)Double chanceX277.2%1.30
Over 27% · Under 73%Goals 2.5Under73%1.37
Yes 35% · No 65%Both teams scoreNo65%1.54
1.78 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
8.5 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.3%Largest probability gapArda Kardzhali winDifference-1.2 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Lokomotiv Plovdiv win23%4.354.2022.4%+0.6 pp
Draw30%3.333.2029.4%+0.6 pp
Arda Kardzhali win47%2.131.9548.2%-1.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.80

Home share of expected goals 44.9%

Total expected goals1.78Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 27% · Under 73%

Arda Kardzhali0.98

Away share of expected goals 55.1%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 35% · No 65%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

0.60pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Points3

SignalHome failed to score: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Arda Kardzhali

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalAway unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
23%
Win probability excluding draw
47%
3
Points from supplied form
10
0.80
Expected goals
0.98
Lokomotiv PlovdivArda Kardzhali
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Lokomotiv Plovdiv signalHome failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Arda Kardzhali signalAway unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk53% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 47% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Lokomotiv Plovdiv win 23%,Draw 30%,Arda Kardzhali win 47%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.78 · Over 2.5 27% · Current selection Under