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BGR Bulgaria First League · Fixture ·

Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–22.95 expected goals
Away form
Home win13%
Draw23%
Away win64%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 64% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win64% selection probability
Projected score1–2Septemvri SofiaCSKA 1948 Sofia
Expected goals2.95Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over57% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo54% for the selected side
Expected corners8.8Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
13% / 23% / 64%Match resultAway win64%1.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Septemvri Sofia win (13.2%)Double chanceX286.8%1.15
Over 57% · Under 43%Goals 2.5Over57%1.75
Yes 46% · No 54%Both teams scoreNo54%1.85
2.95 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
8.8 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.0%Largest probability gapCSKA 1948 Sofia winDifference+1.1 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Septemvri Sofia win13%7.697.0013.5%-0.5 pp
Draw23%4.354.0023.6%-0.6 pp
CSKA 1948 Sofia win64%1.561.5062.9%+1.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Septemvri Sofia0.70

Home share of expected goals 23.7%

Total expected goals2.95Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 57% · Under 43%

CSKA 1948 Sofia2.25

Away share of expected goals 76.3%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 46% · No 54%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Septemvri Sofia

0.80pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

CSKA 1948 Sofia

2.60pts / match
Played5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Points13

SignalHome failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
13%
Win probability excluding draw
64%
4
Points from supplied form
13
0.70
Expected goals
2.25
Septemvri SofiaCSKA 1948 Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Septemvri Sofia signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02CSKA 1948 Sofia signalHome failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk36% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 64% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Septemvri Sofia win 13%,Draw 23%,CSKA 1948 Sofia win 64%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.95 · Over 2.5 57% · Current selection Over