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BGR Bulgaria - Parva liga · Partita ·

Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–22.95 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa13%
Pareggio23%
Vittoria ospite64%
Full model forecastVittoria ospiteTier A · 64% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria ospite64% selection probability
Projected score1–2Septemvri SofiaCSKA 1948 Sofia
Expected goals2.95Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra57% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo54% for the selected side
Expected corners8.8Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
13% / 23% / 64%Esito partitaVittoria ospite64%1.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Septemvri Sofia win (13.2%)Doppia ChanceX286.8%1.15
Sopra 57% · Sotto 43%Goals 2.5Sopra57%1.75
Sì 46% · No 54%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo54%1.85
2.95 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–2
8.8 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.0%Largest probability gapCSKA 1948 Sofia winDifference+1.1 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Septemvri Sofia win13%7.697.0013.5%-0.5 pp
Pareggio23%4.354.0023.6%-0.6 pp
CSKA 1948 Sofia win64%1.561.5062.9%+1.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Septemvri Sofia0.70

Casa share of expected goals 23.7%

Total expected goals2.95Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 57% · Sotto 43%

CSKA 1948 Sofia2.25

Trasferta share of expected goals 76.3%

Projected score1–2BTTS split 46% · No 54%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Septemvri Sofia

0.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punti4

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

CSKA 1948 Sofia

2.60pts / match
Giocate5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Punti13

SignalCasa failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
13%
Vinta probability excluding draw
64%
4
Points from supplied form
13
0.70
Expected goals
2.25
Septemvri SofiaCSKA 1948 Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Septemvri Sofia signalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02CSKA 1948 Sofia signalCasa failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk36% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria ospite · Projected score 1–2 · 64% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Septemvri Sofia vinta 13%,Pareggio 23%,CSKA 1948 Sofia vinta 64%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.95 · Sopra 2.5 57% · Current selection Sopra