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BGR Bulgaria - Prima Liga · Meci ·

Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score1–22.95 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde13%
Egal23%
Victorie oaspeți64%
Full model forecastVictorie oaspețiTier A · 64% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie oaspeți64% selection probability
Projected score1–2Septemvri SofiaCSKA 1948 Sofia
Expected goals2.95Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Peste57% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu54% for the selected side
Expected corners8.8Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
13% / 23% / 64%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie oaspeți64%1.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Septemvri Sofia win (13.2%)Șansă dublăX286.8%1.15
Peste 57% · Sub 43%Goals 2.5Peste57%1.75
Da 46% · Nu 54%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu54%1.85
2.95 total expected goalsScor corect1–2
8.8 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.0%Largest probability gapCSKA 1948 Sofia winDifference+1.1 pp
OutcomePredicțieCotă corectăReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Septemvri Sofia win13%7.697.0013.5%-0.5 pp
Egal23%4.354.0023.6%-0.6 pp
CSKA 1948 Sofia win64%1.561.5062.9%+1.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Septemvri Sofia0.70

Gazde share of expected goals 23.7%

Total expected goals2.95Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Peste 57% · Sub 43%

CSKA 1948 Sofia2.25

Oaspeți share of expected goals 76.3%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitDa 46% · Nu 54%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Septemvri Sofia

0.80pts / match
Jucate5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Puncte4

SignalGazde matches over 2.5: 3/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

CSKA 1948 Sofia

2.60pts / match
Jucate5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Puncte13

SignalGazde failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
13%
Câștig probability excluding draw
64%
4
Points from supplied form
13
0.70
Expected goals
2.25
Septemvri SofiaCSKA 1948 Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Septemvri Sofia signalGazde matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02CSKA 1948 Sofia signalGazde failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk36% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie oaspeți · Projected score 1–2 · 64% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Septemvri Sofia câștig 13%,Egal 23%,CSKA 1948 Sofia câștig 64%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.95 · Peste 2.5 57% · Current selection Peste