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BGR Bulgaria First League · Fixture ·

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs CSKA Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–22.81 expected goals
Away form
Home win22%
Draw27%
Away win51%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 51% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win51% selection probability
Projected score1–2Lokomotiv 1929 SofiaCSKA Sofia
Expected goals2.81Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over53% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes51% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
22% / 27% / 51%Match resultAway win51%1.96
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia win (21.9%)Double chanceX278.1%1.28
Over 53% · Under 47%Goals 2.5Over53%1.89
Yes 51% · No 49%Both teams scoreYes51%1.96
2.81 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
9.5 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia win22%4.55
Draw27%3.70
CSKA Sofia win51%1.96

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia0.91

Home share of expected goals 32.4%

Total expected goals2.81Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 53% · Under 47%

CSKA Sofia1.90

Away share of expected goals 67.6%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 51% · No 49%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

0.40pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Points2

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

CSKA Sofia

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Points9

SignalAway won 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
22%
Win probability excluding draw
51%
2
Points from supplied form
9
0.91
Expected goals
1.90
Lokomotiv 1929 SofiaCSKA Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02CSKA Sofia signalAway won 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk49% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs CSKA Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 51% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia win 22%,Draw 27%,CSKA Sofia win 51%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.81 · Over 2.5 53% · Current selection Over