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BGR Болгария - Первая лига · Матч ·

Локомотив Пловдив vs Арда Кырджали

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Хозяева form
Projected score1–11.78 expected goals
Гости form
Победа хозяев23%
Ничья30%
Победа гостей47%
Full model forecastПобеда гостейTier A · 47% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда гостей47% selection probability
Projected score1–1Локомотив ПловдивАрда Кырджали
Expected goals1.78Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Меньше73% for the selected side
Обе забьютНет65% for the selected side
Expected corners8.5Меньше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
23% / 30% / 47%Исход матчаПобеда гостей47%2.13
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Локомотив Пловдив win (22.8%)Двойной шансX277.2%1.30
Больше 27% · Меньше 73%Goals 2.5Меньше73%1.37
Да 35% · Нет 65%Обе забьютНет65%1.54
1.78 total expected goalsТочный счёт1–1
8.5 expected match cornersУгловыеМеньше 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.3%Largest probability gapАрда Кырджали winDifference-1.2 pp
OutcomeПрогнозСправедливый коэффициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Локомотив Пловдив win23%4.354.2022.4%+0.6 pp
Ничья30%3.333.2029.4%+0.6 pp
Арда Кырджали win47%2.131.9548.2%-1.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Локомотив Пловдив0.80

Хозяева share of expected goals 44.9%

Total expected goals1.78Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Больше 27% · Меньше 73%

Арда Кырджали0.98

Гости share of expected goals 55.1%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitДа 35% · Нет 65%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

Локомотив Пловдив

0.60pts / match
Сыграно5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Баллы3

SignalХозяева failed to score: 3/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Арда Кырджали

2.00pts / match
Сыграно5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Баллы10

SignalГости unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
23%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
47%
3
Points from supplied form
10
0.80
Expected goals
0.98
Локомотив ПловдивАрда Кырджали
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Локомотив Пловдив signalХозяева failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Арда Кырджали signalГости unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk53% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Локомотив Пловдив vs Арда Кырджали FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа гостей · Projected score 1–1 · 47% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Локомотив Пловдив выигрыш 23%,Ничья 30%,Арда Кырджали выигрыш 47%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.78 · ТБ 2.5 27% · Current selection Меньше