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SCO Scotland Premiership · Round 1 ·

Hearts vs Dundee Utd

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–12.88 expected goals
Away form
Home win59%
Draw22%
Away win19%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 59% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win59% selection probability
Projected score2–1HeartsDundee Utd
Expected goals2.88Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over55% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo55% for the selected side
Expected corners10.0Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
59% / 22% / 19%Match resultHome win59%1.69
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Dundee Utd win (18.9%)Double chance1X81.1%1.23
Over 55% · Under 45%Goals 2.5Over55%1.82
Yes 45% · No 55%Both teams scoreNo55%1.82
2.88 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
10.0 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.9%Largest probability gapDundee Utd winDifference-0.9 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Hearts win59%1.691.6258.3%+0.7 pp
Draw22%4.554.3321.8%+0.2 pp
Dundee Utd win19%5.264.7519.9%-0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Hearts2.17

Home share of expected goals 75.3%

Total expected goals2.88Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 55% · Under 45%

Dundee Utd0.71

Away share of expected goals 24.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 45% · No 55%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Hearts

0.60pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Points3

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Dundee Utd

0.60pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn3Losses2Points3

SignalHome failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
59%
Win probability excluding draw
19%
3
Points from supplied form
3
2.17
Expected goals
0.71
HeartsDundee Utd
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Hearts signalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Dundee Utd signalHome failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk41% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 22%.

Match questions

Hearts vs Dundee Utd FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 59% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Hearts win 59%,Draw 22%,Dundee Utd win 19%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.88 · Over 2.5 55% · Current selection Over