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SCO Scotland Premiership · Round 1 ·

Kilmarnock vs Celtic

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–23.39 expected goals
Away form
Home win25%
Draw25%
Away win50%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win50% selection probability
Projected score1–2KilmarnockCeltic
Expected goals3.39Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over66% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes63% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
25% / 25% / 50%Match resultAway win50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Kilmarnock win (24.7%)Double chanceX275.3%1.33
Over 66% · Under 34%Goals 2.5Over66%1.52
Yes 63% · No 37%Both teams scoreYes63%1.59
3.39 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
10.1 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Kilmarnock win25%4.00
Draw25%4.00
Celtic win50%2.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Kilmarnock1.22

Home share of expected goals 36%

Total expected goals3.39Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 66% · Under 34%

Celtic2.17

Away share of expected goals 64%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 63% · No 37%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Kilmarnock

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalHome unbeaten 4/5

Away-context · form sequence

Celtic

2.00pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalHome clean sheets: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
25%
Win probability excluding draw
50%
10
Points from supplied form
10
1.22
Expected goals
2.17
KilmarnockCeltic
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Kilmarnock signalHome unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Celtic signalHome clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Kilmarnock vs Celtic FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Kilmarnock win 25%,Draw 25%,Celtic win 50%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.39 · Over 2.5 66% · Current selection Over