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HND Honduras Liga Nacional · Round 1 ·

Lobos UPNFM vs Olancho FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–12.50 expected goals
Away form
Home win36%
Draw27%
Away win37%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win37% selection probability
Projected score1–1Lobos UPNFMOlancho FC
Expected goals2.50Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under54% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes50% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
36% / 27% / 37%Match resultAway win37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.1%)Double chance1272.9%1.37
Over 46% · Under 54%Goals 2.5Under54%1.85
Yes 50% · No 50%Both teams scoreYes50%2.00
2.50 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
10.1 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.9%Largest probability gapLobos UPNFM winDifference-0.5 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Lobos UPNFM win36%2.782.4536.5%-0.5 pp
Draw27%3.703.3027.1%-0.1 pp
Olancho FC win37%2.702.4536.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Lobos UPNFM1.04

Home share of expected goals 41.6%

Total expected goals2.50Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 46% · Under 54%

Olancho FC1.46

Away share of expected goals 58.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 50% · No 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Lobos UPNFM

0.20pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Points1

SignalHome failed to score: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Olancho FC

1.40pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalAway unbeaten in 3 recent away matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Win probability excluding draw
37%
1
Points from supplied form
7
1.04
Expected goals
1.46
Lobos UPNFMOlancho FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Lobos UPNFM signalHome failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Olancho FC signalAway unbeaten in 3 recent away matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Lobos UPNFM vs Olancho FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Lobos UPNFM win 36%,Draw 27%,Olancho FC win 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.50 · Over 2.5 46% · Current selection Under