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HND Honduras - Liga Nacional · Round 1 ·

Lobos UPNFM vs Olancho FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score1–12.50 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile36%
Nul27%
Victoire à l’extérieur37%
Full model forecastVictoire à l’extérieurTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à l’extérieur37% selection probability
Projected score1–1Lobos UPNFMOlancho FC
Expected goals2.50Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de54% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentOui50% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Plus de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
36% / 27% / 37%Résultat du matchVictoire à l’extérieur37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.1%)Double chance1272.9%1.37
Plus de 46% · Moins de 54%Goals 2.5Moins de54%1.85
Oui 50% · Non 50%Les deux équipes marquentOui50%2.00
2.50 total expected goalsScore exact1–1
10.1 expected match cornersCornersPlus de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.9%Largest probability gapLobos UPNFM winDifference-0.5 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Lobos UPNFM win36%2.782.4536.5%-0.5 pp
Nul27%3.703.3027.1%-0.1 pp
Olancho FC win37%2.702.4536.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Lobos UPNFM1.04

Domicile share of expected goals 41.6%

Total expected goals2.50Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 46% · Moins de 54%

Olancho FC1.46

Extérieur share of expected goals 58.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitOui 50% · Non 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Lobos UPNFM

0.20pts / match
Joués5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Points1

SignalDomicile failed to score: 3/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Olancho FC

1.40pts / match
Joués5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalExtérieur unbeaten in 3 recent away matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Gagné probability excluding draw
37%
1
Points from supplied form
7
1.04
Expected goals
1.46
Lobos UPNFMOlancho FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Lobos UPNFM signalDomicile failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Olancho FC signalExtérieur unbeaten in 3 recent away matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Lobos UPNFM vs Olancho FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à l’extérieur · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Lobos UPNFM victoire 36%,Nul 27%,Olancho FC victoire 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.50 · Plus de 2.5 46% · Current selection Moins de