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HND Honduras Liga Nacional · Round 1 ·

CA Independiente Siguatepeque vs CD Choloma

Market-based forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–12.73 expected goals
Away form
Home win46%
Draw26%
Away win28%
Market-based forecastHome winTier B · 46% selection probability
Market-based forecast · Tier B

Match prediction

Market-led fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win46% selection probability
Projected score2–1CA Independiente SiguatepequeCD Choloma
Expected goals2.73Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over51% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes55% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
46% / 26% / 28%Match resultHome win46%2.17
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.1%)Double chance1273.9%1.35
Over 51% · Under 49%Goals 2.5Over51%1.96
Yes 55% · No 45%Both teams scoreYes55%1.82
2.73 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1
10.3 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Reference market used for this forecast

This market-based forecast is aligned to the normalized pre-match 1X2 reference. The comparison is contextual and makes no betting-edge claim.

Displayed margin12.5%Forecast sourceMarket-basedEdge claimNone
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
CA Independiente Siguatepeque win46%2.171.9146.5%
Draw26%3.853.4026.1%
CD Choloma win28%3.573.2527.3%

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

CA Independiente Siguatepeque1.55

Home share of expected goals 56.8%

Total expected goals2.73Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 51% · Under 49%

CD Choloma1.18

Away share of expected goals 43.2%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 55% · No 45%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

CA Independiente Siguatepeque

0.00pts / match
Played1Wins0Drawn0Losses1Points0

SignalAway won 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

CD Choloma

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Points9

SignalAway matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
46%
Win probability excluding draw
28%
0
Points from supplied form
9
1.55
Expected goals
1.18
CA Independiente SiguatepequeCD Choloma
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-led fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01CA Independiente Siguatepeque signalAway won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02CD Choloma signalAway matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk54% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

CA Independiente Siguatepeque vs CD Choloma FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 46% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

CA Independiente Siguatepeque win 46%,Draw 26%,CD Choloma win 28%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.73 · Over 2.5 51% · Current selection Over