Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
51% / 26% / 23%Match resultHome win51%1.96
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Merida win (23.2%)Double chance1X76.8%1.30
Over 63% · Under 37%Goals 2.5Over63%1.59
Yes 65% · No 35%Both teams scoreYes65%1.54
3.27 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1——
7.9 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5——
Price comparison
Reference market used for this forecast
This market-based forecast is aligned to the normalized pre-match 1X2 reference. The comparison is contextual and makes no betting-edge claim.
Displayed margin11.6%Forecast sourceMarket-basedEdge claimNone
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Leganes win51%1.961.7551.2%—
Draw26%3.853.4026.4%—
Merida win23%4.354.0022.4%—
Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 58.7%
Total expected goals3.27Open
Dedicated goals model: Over 63% · Under 37%
Away share of expected goals 41.3%
Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 65% · No 35%Match profileOpen
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
1.00pts / matchLeganes
WLDLD
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5
SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5
Away-context · form sequence
1.25pts / matchMerida
LWDD
Played4Wins1Drawn2Losses1Points5
SignalHome failed to score: 2/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
51%
Win probability excluding draw
23%5
Points from supplied form
51.92
Expected goals
1.35LeganesMerida
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Market-led fallback leans HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 26%.
Match questions
Leganes vs Merida FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 51% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Leganes win 51%，Draw 26%，Merida win 23%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 3.27 · Over 2.5 63% · Current selection Over。