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ESP Espagne - La Liga · Match ·

Celta Vigo vs Athletic Bilbao

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score2–13.11 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile54%
Nul25%
Victoire à l’extérieur21%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 54% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile54% selection probability
Projected score2–1Celta VigoAthletic Bilbao
Expected goals3.11Ouverture match profile
Goals 2.5Plus de60% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentOui55% for the selected side
Expected corners9.0Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
54% / 25% / 21%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile54%1.85
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Athletic Bilbao win (21.2%)Double chance1X78.8%1.27
Plus de 60% · Moins de 40%Goals 2.5Plus de60%1.67
Oui 55% · Non 45%Les deux équipes marquentOui55%1.82
3.11 total expected goalsScore exact2–1
9.0 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Non snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCote juste
Celta Vigo win54%1.85
Nul25%4.00
Athletic Bilbao win21%4.76

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Celta Vigo2.13

Domicile share of expected goals 68.5%

Total expected goals3.11Ouverture

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 60% · Moins de 40%

Athletic Bilbao0.98

Extérieur share of expected goals 31.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitOui 55% · Non 45%Match profileOuverture
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Celta Vigo

1.80pts / match
Joués5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Points9

SignalDomicile unbeaten 5/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Athletic Bilbao

2.00pts / match
Joués5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalDomicile matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
54%
Gagné probability excluding draw
21%
9
Points from supplied form
10
2.13
Expected goals
0.98
Celta VigoAthletic Bilbao
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Celta Vigo signalDomicile unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Athletic Bilbao signalDomicile matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk46% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Celta Vigo vs Athletic Bilbao FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 2–1 · 54% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Celta Vigo victoire 54%,Nul 25%,Athletic Bilbao victoire 21%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.11 · Plus de 2.5 60% · Current selection Plus de