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USA USA USL Championship · Match ·

Monterey Bay FC vs New Mexico United

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score1–22.53 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile40%
Nul27%
Victoire à l’extérieur34%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 40% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile40% selection probability
Projected score1–2Monterey Bay FCNew Mexico United
Expected goals2.53Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de54% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentNon53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.8Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
40% / 27% / 34%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.6%)Double chance1273.4%1.36
Plus de 46% · Moins de 54%Goals 2.5Moins de54%1.85
Oui 47% · Non 53%Les deux équipes marquentNon53%1.89
2.53 total expected goalsScore exact1–2
8.8 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.6%Largest probability gapNew Mexico United winDifference+2.0 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Monterey Bay FC win40%2.502.1541.7%-1.7 pp
Nul27%3.703.4026.3%+0.7 pp
New Mexico United win34%2.942.8032%+2.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Monterey Bay FC0.85

Domicile share of expected goals 33.6%

Total expected goals2.53Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 46% · Moins de 54%

New Mexico United1.68

Extérieur share of expected goals 66.4%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitOui 47% · Non 53%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Monterey Bay FC

0.20pts / match
Joués5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Points1

SignalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

New Mexico United

2.60pts / match
Joués5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Points13

SignalDomicile failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
40%
Gagné probability excluding draw
34%
1
Points from supplied form
13
0.85
Expected goals
1.68
Monterey Bay FCNew Mexico United
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Monterey Bay FC signalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02New Mexico United signalDomicile failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Monterey Bay FC vs New Mexico United FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 1–2 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Monterey Bay FC victoire 40%,Nul 27%,New Mexico United victoire 34%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.53 · Plus de 2.5 46% · Current selection Moins de