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USA USA USL Championship · Match ·

New Mexico United vs Orange County SC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score2–12.69 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile41%
Nul28%
Victoire à l’extérieur30%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile41% selection probability
Projected score2–1New Mexico UnitedOrange County SC
Expected goals2.69Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Plus de50% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentOui54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
41% / 28% / 30%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.5%)Double chance1271.5%1.40
Plus de 50% · Moins de 50%Goals 2.5Plus de50%2.00
Oui 54% · Non 46%Les deux équipes marquentOui54%1.85
2.69 total expected goalsScore exact2–1
9.4 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Non snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCote juste
New Mexico United win41%2.44
Nul28%3.57
Orange County SC win30%3.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

New Mexico United1.53

Domicile share of expected goals 56.9%

Total expected goals2.69Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 50% · Moins de 50%

Orange County SC1.16

Extérieur share of expected goals 43.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitOui 54% · Non 46%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

New Mexico United

2.60pts / match
Joués5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Points13

SignalDomicile unbeaten 5/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Orange County SC

2.20pts / match
Joués5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Points11

SignalDomicile clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
41%
Gagné probability excluding draw
30%
13
Points from supplied form
11
1.53
Expected goals
1.16
New Mexico UnitedOrange County SC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01New Mexico United signalDomicile unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Orange County SC signalDomicile clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

New Mexico United vs Orange County SC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 2–1 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

New Mexico United victoire 41%,Nul 28%,Orange County SC victoire 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.69 · Plus de 2.5 50% · Current selection Plus de