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USA USA USL Championship · Match ·

Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score2–13.24 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile26%
Nul25%
Victoire à l’extérieur49%
Full model forecastVictoire à l’extérieurTier A · 49% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à l’extérieur49% selection probability
Projected score2–1Orange County SCTampa Bay Rowdies
Expected goals3.24Ouverture match profile
Goals 2.5Plus de63% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentOui64% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
26% / 25% / 49%Résultat du matchVictoire à l’extérieur49%2.04
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.6%)Double chance1275.4%1.33
Plus de 63% · Moins de 37%Goals 2.5Plus de63%1.59
Oui 64% · Non 36%Les deux équipes marquentOui64%1.56
3.24 total expected goalsScore exact2–1
9.5 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.9%Largest probability gapTampa Bay Rowdies winDifference-2.0 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Orange County SC win26%3.853.7524.5%+1.5 pp
Nul25%4.003.7524.5%+0.5 pp
Tampa Bay Rowdies win49%2.041.8051%-2.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Orange County SC1.86

Domicile share of expected goals 57.4%

Total expected goals3.24Ouverture

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 63% · Moins de 37%

Tampa Bay Rowdies1.38

Extérieur share of expected goals 42.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitOui 64% · Non 36%Match profileOuverture
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Orange County SC

2.20pts / match
Joués5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Points11

SignalDomicile unbeaten 5/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Tampa Bay Rowdies

2.00pts / match
Joués5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10

SignalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
26%
Gagné probability excluding draw
49%
11
Points from supplied form
10
1.86
Expected goals
1.38
Orange County SCTampa Bay Rowdies
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Orange County SC signalDomicile unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Tampa Bay Rowdies signalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk51% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à l’extérieur · Projected score 2–1 · 49% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Orange County SC victoire 26%,Nul 25%,Tampa Bay Rowdies victoire 49%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.24 · Plus de 2.5 63% · Current selection Plus de