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USA USA USL Championship · Partita ·

Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–13.24 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa26%
Pareggio25%
Vittoria ospite49%
Full model forecastVittoria ospiteTier A · 49% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria ospite49% selection probability
Projected score2–1Orange County SCTampa Bay Rowdies
Expected goals3.24Apertura match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra63% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnano64% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
26% / 25% / 49%Esito partitaVittoria ospite49%2.04
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.6%)Doppia Chance1275.4%1.33
Sopra 63% · Sotto 37%Goals 2.5Sopra63%1.59
Sì 64% · No 36%Entrambe le squadre segnano64%1.56
3.24 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–1
9.5 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin8.9%Largest probability gapTampa Bay Rowdies winDifference-2.0 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Orange County SC win26%3.853.7524.5%+1.5 pp
Pareggio25%4.003.7524.5%+0.5 pp
Tampa Bay Rowdies win49%2.041.8051%-2.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Orange County SC1.86

Casa share of expected goals 57.4%

Total expected goals3.24Apertura

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 63% · Sotto 37%

Tampa Bay Rowdies1.38

Trasferta share of expected goals 42.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 64% · No 36%Match profileApertura
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Orange County SC

2.20pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Punti11

SignalCasa unbeaten 5/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Tampa Bay Rowdies

2.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punti10

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
26%
Vinta probability excluding draw
49%
11
Points from supplied form
10
1.86
Expected goals
1.38
Orange County SCTampa Bay Rowdies
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Orange County SC signalCasa unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Tampa Bay Rowdies signalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk51% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria ospite · Projected score 2–1 · 49% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Orange County SC vinta 26%,Pareggio 25%,Tampa Bay Rowdies vinta 49%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.24 · Sopra 2.5 63% · Current selection Sopra