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USA USA USL Championship · Match ·

New Mexico United vs Orange County SC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–12.69 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger41%
Oavgjort28%
Bortaseger30%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger41% selection probability
Projected score2–1New Mexico UnitedOrange County SC
Expected goals2.69Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Över50% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa54% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
41% / 28% / 30%MatchresultatHemmaseger41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28.5%)Dubbelchans1271.5%1.40
Över 50% · Under 50%Goals 2.5Över50%2.00
Ja 54% · Nej 46%Båda lagen gör målJa54%1.85
2.69 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.4 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
New Mexico United win41%2.44
Oavgjort28%3.57
Orange County SC win30%3.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

New Mexico United1.53

Hemma share of expected goals 56.9%

Total expected goals2.69Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 50% · Under 50%

Orange County SC1.16

Borta share of expected goals 43.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 54% · Nej 46%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

New Mexico United

2.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Poäng13

SignalHemma unbeaten 5/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Orange County SC

2.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Poäng11

SignalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
41%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
30%
13
Points from supplied form
11
1.53
Expected goals
1.16
New Mexico UnitedOrange County SC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01New Mexico United signalHemma unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Orange County SC signalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

New Mexico United vs Orange County SC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

New Mexico United vunnen 41%,Oavgjort 28%,Orange County SC vunnen 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.69 · Över 2.5 50% · Current selection Över