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USA USA USL Championship · Meci ·

Monterey Bay FC vs New Mexico United

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score1–22.53 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde40%
Egal27%
Victorie oaspeți34%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 40% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde40% selection probability
Projected score1–2Monterey Bay FCNew Mexico United
Expected goals2.53Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sub54% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.8Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
40% / 27% / 34%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.6%)Șansă dublă1273.4%1.36
Peste 46% · Sub 54%Goals 2.5Sub54%1.85
Da 47% · Nu 53%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu53%1.89
2.53 total expected goalsScor corect1–2
8.8 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.6%Largest probability gapNew Mexico United winDifference+2.0 pp
OutcomePredicțieCotă corectăReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Monterey Bay FC win40%2.502.1541.7%-1.7 pp
Egal27%3.703.4026.3%+0.7 pp
New Mexico United win34%2.942.8032%+2.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Monterey Bay FC0.85

Gazde share of expected goals 33.6%

Total expected goals2.53Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Peste 46% · Sub 54%

New Mexico United1.68

Oaspeți share of expected goals 66.4%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitDa 47% · Nu 53%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Monterey Bay FC

0.20pts / match
Jucate5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Puncte1

SignalGazde matches over 2.5: 3/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

New Mexico United

2.60pts / match
Jucate5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Puncte13

SignalGazde failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
40%
Câștig probability excluding draw
34%
1
Points from supplied form
13
0.85
Expected goals
1.68
Monterey Bay FCNew Mexico United
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Monterey Bay FC signalGazde matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02New Mexico United signalGazde failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Monterey Bay FC vs New Mexico United FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 1–2 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Monterey Bay FC câștig 40%,Egal 27%,New Mexico United câștig 34%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.53 · Peste 2.5 46% · Current selection Sub