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USA USA USL Championship · Partido ·

Monterey Bay F.C. vs New Mexico United

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score1–22.53 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local40%
Empate27%
Victoria visitante34%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 40% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local40% selection probability
Projected score1–2Monterey Bay F.C.New Mexico United
Expected goals2.53Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Menos de54% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcanNo53% for the selected side
Expected corners8.8Menos de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
40% / 27% / 34%Resultado del partidoVictoria local40%2.50
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.6%)Doble Oportunidad1273.4%1.36
Más de 46% · Menos de 54%Goals 2.5Menos de54%1.85
Sí 47% · No 53%Ambos equipos marcanNo53%1.89
2.53 total expected goalsMarcador exacto1–2
8.8 expected match cornersCórnersMenos de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.6%Largest probability gapNew Mexico United winDifference+2.0 pp
OutcomePronósticoCuotas justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Monterey Bay F.C. win40%2.502.1541.7%-1.7 pp
Empate27%3.703.4026.3%+0.7 pp
New Mexico United win34%2.942.8032%+2.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Monterey Bay F.C.0.85

Local share of expected goals 33.6%

Total expected goals2.53Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Más de 46% · Menos de 54%

New Mexico United1.68

Visitante share of expected goals 66.4%

Projected score1–2BTTS split 47% · No 53%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Monterey Bay F.C.

0.20pts / match
Jugados5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Puntos1

SignalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

New Mexico United

2.60pts / match
Jugados5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Puntos13

SignalLocal failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
40%
Ganado probability excluding draw
34%
1
Points from supplied form
13
0.85
Expected goals
1.68
Monterey Bay F.C.New Mexico United
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Monterey Bay F.C. signalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02New Mexico United signalLocal failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk60% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Monterey Bay F.C. vs New Mexico United FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 1–2 · 40% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Monterey Bay F.C. ganada 40%,Empate 27%,New Mexico United ganada 34%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.53 · Más de 2.5 46% · Current selection Menos de