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ESP España - Primera Federación - Grupo 1 · Partido ·

UD Ourense vs Ponferradina

Market-based forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score1–12.43 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local37%
Empate28%
Victoria visitante35%
Market-based forecastVictoria localTier B · 37% selection probability
Market-based forecast · Tier B

Match prediction

Market-led fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local37% selection probability
Projected score1–1UD OurensePonferradina
Expected goals2.43Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Menos de56% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcanNo50% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Menos de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
37% / 28% / 35%Resultado del partidoVictoria local37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28%)Doble Oportunidad1272%1.39
Más de 44% · Menos de 56%Goals 2.5Menos de56%1.79
Sí 50% · No 50%Ambos equipos marcanNo50%2.00
2.43 total expected goalsMarcador exacto1–1
8.9 expected match cornersCórnersMenos de 9.5
Price comparison

Reference market used for this forecast

This market-based forecast is aligned to the normalized pre-match 1X2 reference. The comparison is contextual and makes no betting-edge claim.

Displayed margin11.3%Forecast sourceMarket-basedEdge claimNinguno
OutcomePronósticoCuotas justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
UD Ourense win37%2.702.5036%
Empate28%3.573.2028.1%
Ponferradina win35%2.862.5036%

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

UD Ourense1.26

Local share of expected goals 51.9%

Total expected goals2.43Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Más de 44% · Menos de 56%

Ponferradina1.17

Visitante share of expected goals 48.1%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 50% · No 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

UD Ourense

0.80pts / match
Jugados5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Puntos4

SignalLocal failed to score: 2/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Ponferradina

1.00pts / match
Jugados5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Puntos5

SignalVisitante matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
37%
Ganado probability excluding draw
35%
4
Points from supplied form
5
1.26
Expected goals
1.17
UD OurensePonferradina
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-led fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01UD Ourense signalLocal failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ponferradina signalVisitante matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

UD Ourense vs Ponferradina FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

UD Ourense ganada 37%,Empate 28%,Ponferradina ganada 35%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.43 · Más de 2.5 44% · Current selection Menos de