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ESP Španělsko - Primera División RFEF - Skupina 1 · Zápas ·

UD Ourense vs Ponferradina

Market-based forecast,stats and analysis

Domácí form
Projected score1–12.43 expected goals
Hosté form
Výhra domácích37%
Remíza28%
Výhra hostů35%
Market-based forecastVýhra domácíchTier B · 37% selection probability
Market-based forecast · Tier B

Match prediction

Market-led fallback leans HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVýhra domácích37% selection probability
Projected score1–1UD OurensePonferradina
Expected goals2.43Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Méně56% for the selected side
Oba týmy skórujíNe50% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Méně 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketVýběrPravděpodobnostFérový kurz
37% / 28% / 35%Výsledek zápasuVýhra domácích37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (28%)Dvojitá šance1272%1.39
Více 44% · Méně 56%Goals 2.5Méně56%1.79
Ano 50% · Ne 50%Oba týmy skórujíNe50%2.00
2.43 total expected goalsPřesné skóre1–1
8.9 expected match cornersRohyMéně 9.5
Price comparison

Reference market used for this forecast

This market-based forecast is aligned to the normalized pre-match 1X2 reference. The comparison is contextual and makes no betting-edge claim.

Displayed margin11.3%Forecast sourceMarket-basedEdge claimŽádné
OutcomePředpověďFérový kurzReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
UD Ourense win37%2.702.5036%
Remíza28%3.573.2028.1%
Ponferradina win35%2.862.5036%

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

UD Ourense1.26

Domácí share of expected goals 51.9%

Total expected goals2.43Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Více 44% · Méně 56%

Ponferradina1.17

Hosté share of expected goals 48.1%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitAno 50% · Ne 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domácí-context · form sequence

UD Ourense

0.80pts / match
Odehráno5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Body4

SignalDomácí failed to score: 2/5

Hosté-context · form sequence

Ponferradina

1.00pts / match
Odehráno5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Body5

SignalHosté matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
37%
Výhra probability excluding draw
35%
4
Points from supplied form
5
1.26
Expected goals
1.17
UD OurensePonferradina
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-led fallback leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01UD Ourense signalDomácí failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ponferradina signalHosté matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remíza probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

UD Ourense vs Ponferradina FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Výhra domácích · Projected score 1–1 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

UD Ourense výhra 37%,Remíza 28%,Ponferradina výhra 35%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.43 · Více 2.5 44% · Current selection Méně